As I wrote earlier, field Poll in Ca. is notoriously liberal & unreliabl , don't you believe it! The Prop 8 may be tight, but I expect it to win, not by much.
October 09, 2008
When the latest Field Poll showed Proposition 8 losing by 17 points, skeptical supporters of the measure that would ban same-sex marriage in California invoked a phrase coined in the 1980s: "the Bradley effect."
Named after the late Los Angeles Mayor Tom Bradley, an African American who lost the 1982 California governor's race after polls showed him leading handily, the phrase refers to the tendency of respondents to lie to pollsters about issues of race.
The Bradley effect has been referenced in presidential polls this year as Sen. Barack Obama seeks to become the first black president. And it is also being used to describe possible disparities between polls taken on gay marriage measures and actual election results.
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