Monday, November 3, 2008

60% chance Obama will win popular vote but lose Electoral vote – my reasonsis


British Journalist: 'Obama Stock Is Overpriced; Sell, Sell'
November 3, 2008
The British journalist is Simon Jenkins, Sunday Times.

*The Jewish Press has endorsed the winner in every election since 1988.
I will share several reasons/factors why McCain will likely win. I first wrote about 2 months ago ,”10 reasons why I believe McCain will win .” Then I lost faith, but regained it recently.
Dick Morris wrote that if Obama wasn’t getting 50% in the final polls, it could spell trouble, because the undecided will break heavily for McCain.
old rule in politics that an incumbent candidate is always in danger when he dips under 50 percent, even if he is leading his opponent in the polls. They could break at rates as high as 4 to 1.
Every single state has more than 3% undecided, up to 9%. If Obama hasn’t convinced those voters by now, most will go with McCain.
The Mason-Dixon in Virginia showed that 11% of whites are undecided – above average in the last days.

My prediction is 281 electoral votes for McCain, 257 for Obama. Obama will lead in popular votes by up to 2%. I won’t be surprised McCain win both.

Even AP Warns that he Could Win Electoral College.
In 2000, Gore narrowly won the popular vote by 537,179 votes. But Bush won 271 to 266.
My reasons I see hope:
1. Those stubborn conservatives who vowed they will NEVER vote for Mccain are coming home. First Dr. Dobson and Mike Savage, there will be more last minute.
2. There’s real fear out there for a Socialist State! People buying guns. Gun owners will lopsidedly vote McCain-Palin!
3. Christian block of voters has come home to McCain. Obama’s mission there has failed miserably! I was worried. The Catholic vote is strong this year & will tilt Ohio & battleground States.
4. The secret LA Times Tape will cause more Jews to turn to McCain.
5. Because of persistent rumor online, significant % of American who will not vote for a suspected Muslim.
6. PUMAS & Hillary supporters- little sampled by polls. I think at least 15% will break for McCain, probably higher! They are still mad & many women kinda like Palin as VP
7. McCain has raised some $5 or more millions for TV ADs last week or so, huge boost! Running Rev. Wright's ad by a black GOP group, very effective in swing States. Will raise more doubts! Obama’s recent funds have dried up.
8. McCain & Palin message have been more passionate, confident!
9. War issue no longer that big issue these days. seldom hear casualties.
10. Stock market has stabilized

11. Joe the plummer factor, a God sent! Many small biz and blue collars are turned off by Obama’s remarks & treatment of him
12. Coal bankruptcy remarks discovered, another God send, will have a definite effect, in a tight race, could tilt it.
13. Palin factor- I think high % women at the end would love see a woman to become VP!
Many who desire change see it in her! Without Palin, McCain does not have a prayer.
Explain to me this:
*Palin gets the highest SNL ratings in a decade
*McCain gets the second highest SNL ratings in a decade.
*McCain gets Letterman his highest rating in 7 years.
*NYC Jewish ladies are buying “Palin wigs”
*Palin glasses are very popular.
If the popular vote lead by Obama is less than 4%, Obama loses the Electoral.
The recent restaurant’s poll (McCain ahead) & AOL straw poll showing 49- 49 validates race is definitely tightening!
I am a believer in momentum shift, it has shifted the last days in our favor! Fox exit polls shows it has closed up from 9 points behind to, 1 point behind, 48-47%, another good sign! If Obama can’t close above 50% , he is in some trouble! He won’t sleep well tonight! In the primaries, Obama was not a good closer with Hillary, might repeat.

13. God & prayer factor!
National Day of prayer yesterday! For the cocky Obama, “pride cometh before a fall.“
His grandma died, cutting his rallies short, his Nevada campaign chair die today.
We might have rain in Philadelphia, of all places, which will help McCain.

If indeed Obama loses, especially by narrow margin, expect troubles on the street, maybe looting in Urban cities like SF, Chicago, LA, Philadelphia, NY city!

Obama will NOT concede! May take days before we know.

No far leftist have ever won White House, though they have repackaged him into a moderate.
I read, to my surprise, that ACORN end up registered more Republicans than Democrats. Also exit polls show the % of new voters, young voters who have voted early, is not really higher than the past.

How is possible Obama who has more baggage, more issues than John Kerry could win except more MSM help, much more cash!
On November 1, 2004, the day before the election, this was the electoral map at Electoral Vote. It predicted a Kerry win: 298-231. but Bush won by 286 - 251. The MSM were off by 102 Electoral Votes. That’s adding Texas, PA, Fl, CO., Missouri together!
Ignore that Gallup poll, which shows Obama ahead by over 10%! Crazy! I believe they intentionally release record no. of polls, using a new methid, geared to discourage and demoralize McCain supporters!
Redskins are losing 16-6 Btw. But Green Bay beat Washington in 2004 and GW won, so no biggie on this predictor.

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