Current Recession last through June, 09- according to economists

RK

We will survive this one, don't lose heart!


The US economy probably went into recession in April in a downturn likely to last 14 months, according to a survey of forecasts released Monday by the Philadelphia Federal Reserve.

The 51 economists on average predicted an annualized drop in US economic output of 2.9 percent in the fourth quarter and a 1.1 percent decline in the first quarter of 2009, the Philly Fed said.

More than half of the panelists say their outlook is based on the assumption that Congress will pass a new stimulus package, with a size estimated at 211 billion dollars.

According to the forecasters, the stimulus package will begin to affect real growth in the first quarter of 2009. They saw modest growth of 0.8 percent and 0.9 percent returning in the second and third quarters, respectively, improving to 2.3 percent in the fourth quarter.