Saturday, September 27, 2008

Historical Voting Patterns are MORE Reliable than Political Polls-Here's Evidence


There are those who are worried about some State polls showing Obama slightly ahead in several crucial States. More reliable than polls are the historic voting patterns of these states. The Democrats have nominated their most left wing candidate, well, at least since McGovern. Also MOST inexperienced.
I refer you to historical trends:

1. Virginia has NOT voted Democratic in 42 years since the LBJ landslide. The military retirees in the southeast and the rural voters in the rest of Virginia are not going to turn to Obama when they would not turn to Clinton.

2. Colorado has voted Democrat only once since 1964 and that was in 1992 when Clinton, again aided by a strong third party challenge from Perot won. It reverted to the GOP in 1996 (in spite of Perot and Dole’s weakness) and has remained in GOP hands since then. Since then, George Bush took it very comfortably by 150,000 and 100,000 votes respectively. How plausible do you find it that Clinton could not even win it during an easy electoral victory in 1996 against Dole and yet Obama is going to win it against 2 westerners like McCain and Palin. Especially with the NRA in overdrive in a big 2nd Amendment state. Note that the polls in Colorado always showed Sen. Wayne Allard losing and he won comfortably by 5% both times against a relatively centrist Democrat and strong candidate Tom Strickland both in 1996 and 2002.

3. Pennsylvania....among the oldest states in the union with a very high percentage of vets. the margin has shrunk from 400K votes in 1996 to 200K votes in 2000 to 140K votes in 2004, in spite of the fact that in 2000 and 2004, you had a qualified veteran at the top of the Dem ticket and a non veteran southerner at the top of the GOP ticket. Obama was clobbered in the Dem primary and lost particularly badly among older white and union voters, the same ones that are purportedly undecided this time. For the past 2 election cycles these voters have been increasingly turning away from qualified Dem candidates, who are veterans, toward Bush, a non vet and a Southerner. There is no reason not to expect a flood of these voters to McCain. Vote fraud in Philly can get you only so far, especially with Palin drawing huge crowds and interest not to mention votes. The same applies a fortiori to Ohio. And to Michigan.

The GOP prospects are not nearly as grim as some suggest. In fact they are actually brighter than they were in 2000 and 2004.

In other words, they have their polls, unreliable as we all know they are. We have historical trends (far more reliable) and analysis. Be of good cheer!
Let's pray & Work hard.

Remember, only three Democratic Presidents since 1860 (that is: When Lincoln ran the first time) have gotten an absolute majority of the popular vote: FDR, LBJ and Carter, the latter 2 being southerners and therefore at least being perceived as more conservative).

With all his baggage and questionable background, do you really believe Obama will be the fourth.. .? In 150 years? After limping through the primaries? In the first real contested race he has ever run? Well, if you believe it, I have a bridge to Alaska I like to sell you!

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