Monday, September 29, 2008

Obama camp claims they will win by landslide


Yes, lately, the Obama camp looks more hopeful of winning. Today, the Obama camp express confidence they will win, even by a landslide. They say the internal polls show they should do even better. One huge reason is the economic news , another is the Bush handlers have been restraining Gov. Palin rather than unleash her talents and energy! McCain just dispatched 2 top aides, and latest word is Palin should have more freedom to speak.

Despite popular vote leads ranging from anywhere from 5-9 points, the Democrats, so far anyway, have failed to show that large of a lead on a state-by-state basis. I see in Battleground poll, for example, shows that Obama only leads 286-252 in the electoral vote count.
1964 - The last Dem landslide

The last Democratic landslide was in 1964, when then-President Johnson defeated GOPer Barry Goldwater, 486-52. Though 44 years has passed since that election, it could give us a big clue for 2008. If, for example, Obama wins in Virginia early on election night, it will be the first time that the Commonwealth went blue since the Johnson-Goldwatch matchup. Right now, Va is polling well for the Dems, which is certainly a troubling sign. Another red state that hasn't voted for the Dems since '64: Indiana. Again, if Obama takes Indiana, watch out for a huge Obama victory.

If any of these now-solid red states which voted for Carter in '76 switch to blue on election night, McCain/Palin is in trouble: Texas, Mississippi, Alabama, North Carolina, and South Carolina. Luckily none of these four states appear headed blue.

These Clinton states voted for the 42nd president in '92 but haven't voted Democrat since then: Montana, Georgia, West Virginia and Colorado. Colorado is polling very well for Obama, while Montana and certainly Georgia, are less so. West Virginia will remain red.

Watch the key states mentioned here, by order of poll closings (Eastern time) for clues:

6 p.m. Indiana - Long night for the GOP if it loses here. Kentucky

7 p.m. Florida South Carolina Virginia - A Obama victory here wouldn't be a surprise.

7:30 p.m. Ohio West Virginia - unlikely to go Obama. Ohio is critical to McCain.

9 p.m. Lousiana Arizona Colorado - Arizona will not go to Obama, but Colorado might. Could this decide the election? New Mexico

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