Newest Ernst/Young Electoral College Report: McCain win 282 vs. Obama's 256 electoral votes

RK

This is an advance copy of the Ernst/Young Electoral College Report coming out on next Monday.
270 votes is required to win.

U.S. Presidential Election:
2008 Electoral Vote Analysis

The following represents an assessment on a state-by-state basis of the winner and the corresponding share of the electoral vote, if the election were held now.

Based on this assessment, the Republican Presidential ticket of Senator John McCain of Arizona and Governor Sarah Palin of Alaska would win 29 states with 282 electoral votes if the election were held now. The Democratic ticket of Senator Barack Obama of Illinois and Senator Joe Biden of Delaware would win 22 states (including the District of Columbia) with 256 electoral votes. The number of electoral votes needed to win is 270.

This updated assessment represents a shift of one state (Colorado) and 9 electoral votes from the Republican ticket to the Democratic ticket since the August assessment. A detailed analysis of the shift in Colorado is provided below.

The methodology used gives significant weight to recent trends in state polls. The data bases used incorporate state polls conducted by many organizations. Some of the polling organizations focus only on some states. Others poll in many states. Polling results are sometimes modified to reflect other factors.

Polling results are also supplemented by reports from state-based Democratic political activists who have agreed to provide their own assessment of the results if the election were held now.

Two caveats about this methodology. First, since this methodology relies heavily on state polls, which in turn typically only poll registered voters, it does not take into account the potential impact that newly registered voters will have. Second, since polling organizations typically call residential phone numbers, their results do not reflect potential voters (particularly young voters) whose primary telephones are cellular.

The methodology used also gives weight to: each state’s historical voting patterns in Presidential and other state-wide elections; key demographic groups (age, ethnicity, religion); 2008 primary/caucus results; and other current political developments (e.g., other statewide races for Senator and Governor, voter registration and party identification trends).

States in Red are assessed to be solidly for the Republican ticket. There are 20 such states with a total of 163 electoral votes.

States in Blue are assessed to be solidly for the Democratic ticket. There are 15 such states (including the District of Columbia) with a total of 190 electoral votes.

States in Italics are the remaining “battleground states.” Of the 16 “battleground states” with 185 electoral votes, following the table below are an analysis and rationale for each state’s assessment. In italics are factors that may still change the current result.

The last column on the right is an estimate of the possibility of the result changing between now and November.

An asterisk (*) indicates a change from the initial assessment in August.

In addition to Colorado shifting from McCain-Palin to Obama-Biden, eight states have shifted in the possibility of the result changing between now and November. Of these states, five (Alaska, Georgia, Montana, North Carolina, South Carolina) have shifted in the possibility of changing from McCain-Palin to Obama-Biden from “Moderate” to “Low.” One state (Minnesota) has shifted in the possibility of changing from Obama-Biden to McCain-Palin from “Moderate” to “High.” One state (Washington) has shifted in the possibility of changing from Obama-Biden to McCain-Palin from “Low” to “Moderate.” One state (Florida) has shifted in the possibility of changing from McCain-Palin to Obama-Biden from “Moderate” to “High.”

Of the total of nine states whose assessments have shifted since August, seven (Alaska, Georgia, Minnesota, Montana, North Carolina, South Carolina, Washington) have shifted in the direction of the Republican ticket, while two (Colorado, Florida) have shifted in the direction of the Democratic ticket.

Of those states with “High” possibilities of changing between now and November, three (Colorado, Minnesota, and Pennsylvania with a total of 40 electoral votes) might move to McCain-Palin, while four (Florida, Michigan, Nevada, and Ohio with a total of 69 electoral votes) might move to Obama-Biden. If all of these states do shift, then the result would be 285 electoral votes for Obama-Biden and 253 electoral votes for McCain-Palin.

The final section is an updated analysis of three key swing groups – Catholics, Hispanics-Latinos, and older voters (particularly women) -- who are critical to the chances of the Democratic Presidential ticket winning in November.





State Obama-Biden McCain-Palin Possibility Of
Shifting
Alabama (AL) 9 Low
Alaska (AK) 3 *Low
Arizona (AZ) 10 Low
Arkansas (AR) 6 Low
California (CA) 55 Low
Colorado (CO) *9 0 High
Connecticut (CT) 7 Moderate
Delaware (DE) 3 Low
District of Columbia (DC) 3 Low
Florida (FL) 27 *High
Georgia (GA) 15 *Low
Hawaii (HI) 4 Low
Idaho (ID) 4 Low
Illinois (IL) 21 Low
Indiana (IN) 11 Moderate
Iowa (IA) 7 Moderate
Kansas (KS) 6 Low
Kentucky (KY) 8 Low
Louisiana (LA) 9 Low
Maine (ME) 4 Low
Maryland (MD) 10 Low
Massachusetts (MA) 12 Low
Michigan (MI) 17 High
Minnesota (MN) 10 *High
Mississippi (MS) 6 Low
Missouri (MO) 11 Moderate
Montana (MT) 3 *Low
Nebraska (NE) 5 Low
Nevada (NV) 5 High
New Hampshire (NH) 4 Moderate
New Jersey (NJ) 15 Moderate
New Mexico (NM) 5 Moderate
New York (NY) 31 Low
North Carolina (NC) 15 *Low
North Dakota (ND) 3 Low
Ohio (OH) 20 High
Oklahoma (OK) 7 Low
Oregon (OR) 7 Low
Pennsylvania (PA) 21 High
Rhode Island (RI) 4 Low
South Carolina (SC) 8 *Low
South Dakota (SD) 3 Low
Tennessee (TN) 11 Low
Texas (TX) 34 Low
Utah (UT) 5 Low
Vermont (VT) 3 Low
Virginia (VA) 13 Moderate
Washington (WA) 11 *Moderate
West Virginia (WV) 5 Low
Wisconsin (WI) 10 Moderate
Wyoming (WY) 3 Low

TOTALS 256 vs. 282 electoral votes