If McCAin loses both Colordao & Ohio, it's over for him, but he should capture both. Colorado (Jim Dobson & etc there) & Ohio (big catholic vote bloc) , but it will not be a cake walk.
Since MN & WI are highly likely will go to Obama.
PA has traditionally been Democratic, but for some reasons (more later) , there is 55% chance it will go for McCain this time. Pennsylvania’s governor is Ed Rendell, Big Sen Clinton supporter, Clintons might backstab Obama there by having low voter turnout. Pennsylvania is 85 percent white, some conservative white Penn Democrats are not yet ready to vote for a black man for president.
McCain should grab & win Florida and Nevada.
Obama will win New York , but not by much
The entire South basically will stay with McCain
New Mexico will go McCain.