Monday, September 15, 2008

Why The Black Vote Won't Help Obama (No One Gets 100% Of Any Group's Vote )

RK ^ | 9/15/2008 | Kevin Collins

Obama will say he is going to win a few southern states, namely Virginia, North Carolina and Florida. Nothing in politics is truly impossible of course but the odds against an Obama victory in these states is as close to impossible as you can get.

Recently, the Washington Post did some research into what would be necessary for such a political miracle to occur. The numbers involved are very telling.

In these three states, as in the case with any state Obama needs to take from the GOP column, the first requirement for an Obama victory is that he hold all of the White vote that John Kerry got.

From there an Obama victory in these three old south states requires Democrats to increase Black turnout in Virginia by 30%, in North Carolina by 36% and Florida by 23%. These numbers are so high as to scarcely demand attention. When Republicans won solid victories across the nation in 2004 the GOP increased Republican turnout by less than 5%. Double figure increases are just not going to happen among any group.

Finally, the plan calls for Obama getting 95% of the Black vote. While it is tempting to say of course Obama will get this requirement without a doubt, consider these numbers.

During the Democratic primaries, Obama averaged just 84.4% of the Black vote. Could that swell all the way up to the necessary 95%? That’s a very tall order. A recent Zogby poll reported that Obama “had lost some support among Blacks…” Nobody gets 100% of any group.

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