Saturday, September 13, 2008

Zogby electoral count indicates SURGE towards McCain- 234 for Obama vs. 226 McCain

By: RK

An Electoral College tidal wave has followed the surge of interest in the rejuvenated Republican presidential ticket of John McCain and Sarah Palin, nearly erasing a once-daunting Democratic advantage and creating a race for the White House that is nearly dead-level even.

The latest Zogby Interactive polling in 11 key battleground states, and a further analysis of polling in other states, has resulted in the recalibration of the Zogby Electoral College Map, available at

In this latest Zogby calculation, Obama/Biden lead the race with a projected 234 Electoral College votes in 18 states and the District of Columbia, compared with 226 votes from 25 states for the McCain/Palin ticket. Another 78 Electoral College votes from seven states remain up for grabs, the latest Zogby analysis shows.

See the Zogby map online to get Pollster John Zogby's state-by-state commentary on this latest polling.

In this latest adjustment of the Zogby map, Obama has lost 26 Electoral College votes from two states—Pennsylvania and New Mexico – both of which were moved from the Obama column into the toss-up column.

Meanwhile, McCain has gained enough ground to have—at least for now—captured a definitive lead in seven new states: Ohio, Missouri, Nevada, South Carolina, Montana, South and North Dakota. McCain’s gains total 54 Electoral College votes. Based on a Zogby analysis of other credible polling and demographic trends, the Zogby map is also moving four other states – Montana, South Carolina, South Dakota, and North Dakota from toss-ups into the McCain column.

All of McCain’s gains come from moving toss-up states into his column—no states moved directly from Obama to McCain.

In the race for the White House, the winner must capture states worth at least 270 Electoral College votes, a majority of the total of 538 votes available.

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